19 February 2025

Powers of Persuasion

Recommendation

During the second half of the 20th century, many experts saw British advertising as the world’s best. That significant achievement raises the question: How did the British ad industry achieve world acclaim? Noted British adman Winston Fletcher presents a detailed history of British advertising starting with the Victorian period and moving to contemporary developments. This detailed book profiles the leading agencies, people, campaigns, and even the regulatory and communications developments that shaped the industry. Fletcher, a key industry figure, saw these events first-hand, so this history reads like a memoir. Non-Britons will be at a slight disadvantage reading certain sections because they may not be familiar with some of the award-winning ads he profiles. However, BooksInShort believes that if you are looking for a solid, focused, serious history of British advertising, this is it.

Take-Aways

  • Britain’s first TV commercial aired in September 1955. It advertised Gibbs SR toothpaste.
  • When commercial TV became a reality, it shaped Britain’s economy; it became “unquestionably the fastest-acting mass advertising medium.”
  • TV changed ad agencies by shifting power to art directors, creative departments and “visualizers” who converted writers’ copy into images.
  • Throughout the 1960s, advertisers developed more thoughtful philosophies about creativity and branding.
  • In the 1970s, agencies introduced research and “account planning” into the creative process.
  • In account planning, creative staff members adjust ads’ text and appearance to respond to feedback from data analysis.
  • The 1980s saw the emergence of advertising holding companies.
  • The structure of these holdings firms now has become so complex that it creates tension with advertisers; this may render holding firms obsolete in the future.
  • The dawn of satellite TV fragmented audiences and changed media buying patterns.
  • A well-run ad agency should easily achieve a 12% gross profit.

Summary

The Birth of Commercial Advertising in Britain

Insiders in British advertising see 1951 as the field’s “watershed year”: The industry held its biggest national conference up to that time and London hosted the first international market research conference. The same year, the British Labour government formed a commission to study the commercialization of television. At that time, a majority of the committee leaned toward a ban on commercial television, and favored the commercial-free, public BBC [British Broadcasting Corporation]. This predilection could have postponed the growth of the advertising industry in the U.K. The idea of commercial TV was so unpopular that one Scottish Lord likened approving it to the introduction of bubonic plague into England. Later that year, Winston Churchill’s Conservative government ousted the Labour Party from power.

“1951...marked the beginning of the transition from the trough of the Second World War, and the post-war restrictions and privations, to the sunny uplands of economic affluence.”

The debate over the future of commercial TV continued until 1954, dictating the course of British culture. A coalition of advertising executives and government critics, the Popular Television Association, emerged to counter the Conservatives, who opposed commercial TV, and to create a counterbalance to the BBC. Commercial TV became a reality when an ad for Gibbs SR toothpaste aired in September 1955, and it has since shaped Britain’s economy. It is “unquestionably the fastest-acting mass advertising medium.” Without commercial television, British advertising would never have progressed and gained world attention. However, early commercials only demonstrated products’ features and were devoid of real communication, persuasion or humor, a British staple.

“The debate on the 1954 television bill...was ‘to be one of the...most important debates since the war. On it depends the future thinking of our people and our standards of culture’.” [ – Herbert Morrison]

TV’s commercialization affected agencies by shifting power to art directors, creative departments and “visualizers” who converted writers’ copy into images. TV’s use of motion, color and sound reshaped creative departments, media buying and the power structure inside ad agencies. Early ad agencies functioned as management consultants and business generalists, as well as advertising specialists, but with commercialization, agencies began to rely more on creative briefs and market research. As a result of this higher profile, by the late 1950s, some experts came to regard advertising as a major, often negative, social force. Between 1957 and 1963, industry insiders wrote four very influential books on advertising: The Hidden Persuaders (Vance Packard, 1957); Madison Avenue USA (Martin Mayer, 1958); Reality in Advertising (Rosser Reeves, 1961); and Confessions of an Advertising Man (David Ogilvy, 1963.)

“Commercial television was the high-octane fuel which powered the consumer society.”

In the 1960s, agencies began developing their own philosophies about creativity and branding. The Ted Bates agency, which acquired the U.K.’s Hobson Bates in 1959, capitalized on its “unique sales proposition” philosophy – the concept of repeatedly promoting a product’s key attribute. The 1960s also saw the growing popularity of color advertising and free color magazine supplements, led by Britain’s biggest newspapers. Britain’s first commercial network, ITV [Independent Television], launched color TV in 1969. To reach the teenage market, which the BBC often overlooked, Radio Luxembourg and, later, Radio Caroline, combined creative programming and guerilla operational tactics. For example, broadcasters aired Radio Caroline from a “pirate” ship anchored off the Essex Coast, outside of British legal jurisdiction.

“Television is...capable of building nigh on to 100% public awareness of a new product or campaign in a matter of days.”

To avoid being acquired by American firms, more and more British ad agencies listed themselves on the London Stock Exchange (LSE). By the end of 1969, the LSE listed nine British agencies.

The Zenith of Advertising in Britain

By the 1970s, British agencies reached their creative height due to a confluence of talented people, inner-agency organizational changes, and political and economic pressures. The internal changes included the advent of research and “account planning” in campaign development. Boase Massimi Pollitt (BMP), an innovative firm, developed the process of account planning. It uses a variety of tools, including interviewing a sample group of viewers the day after a new ad airs to measure audience retention or recall rates. The account planner uses this data, as well as sales, competitive data and other research, to formulate campaign objectives with the client.

“For British advertising, the 1970s – and a few years either side – were golden years, when we forged ahead of the world.”

Account planning is a process that changes continually as creative staffers use new research to reshape their ads. This process balances creative output with empirical research until the best public response matches the best creative effort. The research then becomes an effective sales tool, if the creative team is receptive to its findings. The invention of the account planning process revamped the way managers ran their agencies. It formalized the ad creation process, and changed the relationship between clients and their agencies.

“During the 1970s a starry galaxy of British campaigns twinkled and sparkled, were ubiquitously liked and admired, won countless international awards, and remain – several decades later – highly regarded and fondly remembered by everyone who saw them.”

During the 1970s, British ads won many international awards. They were noteworthy because they were innovative, they respected the consumer’s intelligence, and they used a soft-sell. At the time, British commercial TV was only 15 years old. Art directors were powerful and clients were also more open to agency ideas about ways to make their products distinctive. The end results included the decade’s five best ad campaigns: Smirnoff vodka; Heineken beer; Benson & Hedges; Margaret Thatcher’s 1979 election campaign; and “Clunk! Click,” a seatbelt promotion.

“Television increased the authority and influence of art directors – no longer mere visualizers – which changed the style and tone of advertisements.”

The 1980s brought the emergence of Britain’s first advertising holding company, and the introduction of satellite and cable television, which catered to specialized audiences. In the print media, Rupert Murdoch confronted the stringent trade unions by replacing workers with computerized typesetting technology at his News International publications. Breaking the unions reduced costs for existing publications and made it economically possible for publishers to launch more publications, such as the Independent and the Sunday Sport.

“The 1980s are remembered as the ‘me’ decade, the selfish decade, the greed decade, the Thatcher decade.”

Advertisers that played a crucial role in the privatization of British companies included such firms as Rolls Royce, British Airports and British Steel. Their ads educated individuals about the benefits of stock ownership, as well as the mechanics of subscribing to state-sponsored initial public offerings. These mass advertising campaigns helped transform the entire British economy.

Trailblazers of U.K. Advertising

The Saatchi brothers, Maurice and Charles, created Britain’s largest, fastest growing agency through a combination of hard salesmanship, a knack for identifying trends, luck and publicity. The two self-made brothers launched their agency in 1970, charging a 22% commission versus the standard 15%. They justified higher prices by pledging better results. The brothers soon realized they would benefit if a larger firm acquired their agency, so when Garland-Compton – which had a U.S. parent and large branded clients – made an offer, the brothers accepted.

“In the United States, humor in advertising has always been professionally distrusted.”

By 1979, the agency was Britain’s largest and going global. When the Tories won the 1979 election, the agency landed the very visible £25 million British Airways account. The agency was unique for not having any imposed “voice” or set tone. Each of its campaigns reflected the client and the product. While not particularly innovative, the agency produced excellent work which became recognized worldwide.

“Many of the successful British campaigns...have been gently humorous. But some highly effective campaigns – a few, not many – go further, and are downright funny.”

Another notable development occurred when advertising agency Bartle Bogle Hegarty (BBH) stopped making ads to use in pitches for new business. Their rationale was that the process wasted time and deflected creative energy from existing clients. While this was risky, BBH gained new business by letting its creative output speak for itself. It soon signed Levis Europe, Audi, British Telecom, Buxton Mineral Water, Speedo and Haagen Dazs. With its success, BBH sold a 49% interest to U.S. advertising powerhouse Leo Burnett, and opened offices in four cities outside Britain. BBH, which wanted to remain small, created a novel structure of developing strategy and campaigns from London, while letting Burnett’s local offices handle day-to-day client relationships.

“The Internet has proved its effectiveness in certain markets – especially travel and tourism, financial services, certain retail sectors and automotive – as a cross between classified advertising and direct marketing.”

In contrast to BBH’s compact operations, Martin Sorrell of the Wire and Plastic Product Group (WPP) managed the world’s largest agencies with a combined 100,000 employees. Sorrell had a business background and entered advertising by working for the Saatchi brothers. He then moved out on his own and, by 1987, he owned 16 companies. As Sorrell’s stock price appreciated, he added two large international ad agencies, J. Walter Thompson (JWT) and Ogilvy & Mather (O&M) to his holding company.

“Today, the media hardly knows which creative agency is working for which advertiser; they have little need to.”

Sorrell made money on JWT by cutting costs and imposing strict spending constraints. He knew a well-run agency should return 12% gross profit, and realized that an increase in JWT’s margins from 4% to 5% translated into a 25% increase in profits. However, Sorrell overextended himself on the O&M deal, as well as the acquisition of two market research firms. The 1990 recession crushed WPP’s stock price, but it recovered by 1994. In 2000, WPP bought Young & Rubicam and in 2005, Grey Global. Today, WPP is the world’s largest media-buying company.

“When someone asks ‘What is the purpose of advertising?’ the answer should almost always be ‘How long have you got?’”

The same was not true at Saatchi & Saatchi, which, by 1983, was expanding globally. By 1985, the agency was buying a new firm monthly, and was moving into advertising and business consulting. The Saatchi brothers stumbled when they acquired Ted Bates for $500 million in hopes of becoming the world’s largest ad agency. In the end, the brothers paid nearly twice what the firm was worth, and then had to seek £406 million in funding on the London Stock Exchange. By 1986, the Bates agency was dissolving. It fired top executives or they left. The agency eventually merged with Backer & Spielvogel, another Saatchi acquisition. However, the brothers remained a major force in British advertising.

Enter the 1990s

In the 1990s, British advertising became global advertising. This greatly expanded the role of agencies’ client service directors, whose duties were similar to the responsibilities held by account directors in the 1960s. Global client service directors had to know their clients’ businesses and maintain close relationships with them on a global basis.

The most notable 1990s agencies were Howell Henry Chaldecott Lury (HHCL), Rainey Kelley Campbell Roalfe (RKCR), and M&C Saatchi (MCS). Each agency tried to be distinctive. HHCL created ads which stressed social responsibility, rejected industry awards and used nonactors whenever possible. The agency worked only for fees (not media commissions). It produced some controversial ads, but within a decade it was out of business. RKCR opened in 1993 under the leadership of CEO Marie-Therese Rainey. Having a female boss was unusual in the U.K. ad business and so was RKCR’s fee structure. Claiming that it could provide clients with “big ideas,” it created a three-tiered fee structure based on “creative time, ideas and performance.” The new fee structure attracted clients, such as Virgin Atlantic and Scottish Courage, a brewery. In 1999, after the agency had been in business for six years, Young & Rubicam purchased it. Of the three newcomers to the market, only MCS, founded in 1995, lasted and succeeded. Within five years, it became Britain’s ninth largest agency.

Early in the decade, Rupert Murdoch changed the public’s viewing habits by launching Sky satellite television, which eventually expanded to 200 channels. Satellite TV, combined with "terrestrial" TV (channels transmitted from an antenna) and the Internet, fragmented audiences and changed media buying patterns. The Internet also reshaped the media landscape, yet its ad revenues grew at a much slower pace than the earnings of commercial TV. In 1997, the Internet generated £8 million in ads, or 0.1% of the U.K.’s total advertising. By 2001, those revenues were £166 million or 1.0% of total advertising.

TV and the Internet also shaped ad agencies’ creativity. TV ads in the 1970s developed stories slowly. Ads in the 1990s make their points more quickly since audiences can decode messages faster. By the time viewers reach their mid-20s, they’ve each seen 100,000 TV ads, most of them a half-dozen times or more, so they can absorb ad messages readily.

While the giant ad holding companies dominate the industry today, their inherent structure will limit their success. The problem is that individual services firms within holding companies cannot pass cost savings along to their clients. As a result, advertisers feel that they are being over-charged. This causes an inherent tension, which could soon make holdings companies obsolete.

About the Author

Winston Fletcher is a vice president of the History of Advertising Trust. He is the author of leading books on advertising and other business practices.


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Powers of Persuasion

Book Powers of Persuasion

The Inside Story of British Advertising

Oxford UP,


 



19 February 2025

Targeting the Job You Want

Recommendation

The mantra has been repeated so often that it’s become a clichŽ: Worker loyalty has disappeared, making every job temporary. Author Kate Wendleton repeats the obvious facts about the increasingly transient work force, but goes beyond the apparent as she supplies inventive ways to approach your career decisions. Her most intriguing suggestion is that you should use a "Seven Stories Approach" to develop your "Forty-Year Vision." The stories help you discover what you’re really passionate about so you can build a long-term vision to guide you meaningfully through your career. While the book is repetitious at times, it offers useful examples of job hunters who used Wendleton’s tactics to improve their careers. BooksInShort recommends this book to anyone who is interested in a fresh approach to career change, and to human resource professionals who want to know how applicants are (or should be) thinking.

Take-Aways

  • Technology and the changing economy are making the job market more fluid.
  • A recent college graduate can expect to have more than a dozen jobs in five separate careers.
  • The job market constantly evolves as industries expand and retrench.
  • Laid-off workers should consider looking for jobs with small companies and companies located outside of central business districts.
  • Advancing in your career requires having the vision to see that you can change your life.
  • A "Forty-Year Vision" helps you plan where you want to be in your career over the long run.
  • A career coach can help set long-term goals and advise on negotiating salary or severance.
  • Your long-term goals should focus on things that you’re good at and enjoy doing.
  • Your internal issues, such as low self-esteem, can sidetrack your career.
  • Longer life spans mean workers remain productive longer.

Summary

The Morphing Job Market

The changing economy and rapidly developing technology have combined to make the job market much more fluid and flexible than it was 20 years ago. The economy continues to morph, making traditional career planning techniques obsolete. Once, a loyal worker expected to stay with one employer for an entire career. But now jobs seem to be merely temporary assignments. Consider the statistics. The typical American worker has been in his or her job only four years. A recent college graduate can expect to have more than a dozen jobs in five separate careers. In 2010, half of workers will hold jobs that hadn’t been invented in 2000.

“Ten years from now, half the working population will be in jobs that do not exist today.”

Want proof? In the early 1990s, few people had ever heard of industries that now employ countless people, such as health maintenance organizations, wireless communications, for-profit schools or the Internet. In 2010, half of all workers will have untraditional jobs and will not be full-timers on one employer’s payroll. As a result, workers must engage in a continual job search. This concept means staying constantly aware of market forces inside and outside the organization where you work.

“Your career is not separate from your life. If you dream of living in a better place, you have to earn more money.”

Today, changing jobs is relatively easy. If you apply for a similar position at another organization, it’s simple for you to display your skill and achievements. On the other hand, switching careers requires effort. If you want to switch to any industry where you have no experience, you will need to find a hiring manager who will make a leap of faith about you. To prove your interest and abilities, you can read industry trade journals, make contacts in the industry, join industry organizations and engage in activities that are relevant to the industry, such as taking courses, volunteering or getting a part-time job. Be persistent.

The Vision Thing

Finding a better job doesn’t just require networking or dressing up for an interview. Advancing in your career requires a vision, which lets you see that you can change your life by setting goals and working persistently. Your life and your career are inseparably joined. A Forty-Year Vision will help you plan where you want to be and how to get there.

“People are happy when they are working toward their goals. When they get diverted from their goals, they’re unhappy.”

First, determine what you want in the long run. Then, decide what you want to be able to offer employers (as opposed to what you can offer now). For instance, a secretary might have plenty of experience with phone work, but she might hate it. As a result, she should downplay that portion of her experience when looking for a new job. In general, seek jobs that allow you to use your experience and talents, while offering you room to grow.

“Studies have shown that up to 85% of all American workers are unhappy in their jobs. They feel that they would be happier elsewhere, but they don’t know where.”

Workers without clear long-term goals frequently move from job to job when they’re dissatisfied, but each move results in essentially the same position. Research shows that most American workers are dissatisfied with their jobs. They say they’d be happier in another job - but they’re not sure what. People are generally unhappy when they get distracted from their ultimate goals and they are satisfied when they are working toward their goals.

“The economy is changing too fast for you to use the same old career planning techniques or the same old attitudes about job hunting.”

Making a forty-year vision into a reality requires research, exposure to dreams and possibilities, facts about those possibilities, learning about the skills demanded by employers, and job-search training to show you how to find the job you want.

Achieving your long-term goals requires you to master your internal issues and to deal with problems that might hold you back. This includes such concerns as a lack of self-esteem, inability to imagine a better future, lack of focus, lack of skills or no mastery of key skills, the inability to have fun, unwillingness to work hard or a conflict in values (for instance, you can’t earn $300,000 a year as a social worker or by working two days a week).

Assessment

It’s not easy to determine what sort of job would make you truly happy. No simple test delivers a clear, accurate answer. So, as a job seeker, you must think hard about what drives you. At the most superficial level, you should conduct an assessment that results in a three-part job target: how large a company do you want to work for, what is your ideal job description and where do you want to live?

“A vision helps people see ahead, and realize that they can not only advance in their careers, but they can change their life circumstances - such as who their friends are and where they live.”

On a deeper level, you can determine your true passions and goals by using the seven stories approach. Start by making a list of your accomplishments, things you enjoyed doing and that you did well. Spend a few days thinking about this, and write down specific, concrete accomplishments as they occur to you. Don’t just note that you made a speech. Write that you made a presentation that won a certain contract. Don’t just write that you enjoy running. Write that you won for your age group in a five-kilometer road race. Once you’ve compiled a list of 25 accomplishments, pick the seven that were most important to you. Then write a one-paragraph account of each of the seven accomplishments, describing the situation and what you enjoyed about the experience. After you’ve written your seven stories, examine them for common threads. You should find a repeated mention of motivated skills, that is, things you’re good at and enjoy, activities that give you a sense of satisfaction and accomplishment.

“Think about the field you are in now, and how it is being affected by technology.”

This list of motivated skills will help you decide whether a certain job change is right for you. Other exercises also can help you identify your driving passions:

  • Write your own obituary - See how you want to be remembered; take steps to get there.
  • Invent your dream job - Name your ideal job to free yourself creatively and make it so.
  • Pretend you just won $10 million - What would you do if money didn’t matter?

Ebbs and Flows

The job market is constantly changing, as industries expand and retrench, or as new technologies replace old technologies. Typewriter repairmen once had plenty of work; now that job barely exists. Bank tellers are being replaced by ATMs. Data entry, once a hot area, has lagged as those jobs move to low-wage markets. Some industries are hot at times, then cool off as workers overcrowd them. Nursing, law and engineering are among the fields that periodically face worker shortages and then have gluts as graduates flood the job market.

“Virtually every job and industry - whether it is publishing, entertainment, manufacturing, financial services or farming - is being impacted by technology and by the global marketplace. If you are not aware, you will be blind-sided.”

The worst case for the worker is to be in a retrenching industry, where there are more workers seeking jobs than there are jobs available. Often, people in retrenching industries deny that the downturn is permanent. Even top executives can be unaware of important changes, and therefore face lower-paying jobs as their skills become obsolete. A laid-off worker in a retrenching industry invariably targets that very industry in his job search. But workers in retrenching industries will find jobs more quickly if they target new industries.

“Any assignment (or job) you get is a temporary one. You’re doing work, but you don’t have a permanent job.”

Laid-off workers also should consider small companies and companies located outside of central business districts. While large companies do most of the downsizing in a down market, small companies frequently expand. Likewise, most new jobs are created in the suburbs, so workers should consider suburban companies in their searches.

Hot Jobs

Several technology and health care occupations are expected to be the fastest growing careers from 1996 to 2006. For example, jobs for database administrators and computer support specialists are expected to grow 118% from 1996 to 2006. Other growth occupations are computer engineers (109%), systems analysts (103%), home care aides (85%), physical therapy aides (79%), medical assistants (74%) and desktop publishing specialists (74%).

Growth Industries

While yesterday’s fast-growing occupation can be outdated tomorrow, a number of industries are expected to offer strong opportunities over the long run:

  • Consumer goods, particularly for marketing executives with direct-mail expertise.
  • Computer software, but not hardware.
  • Information technology, telecommunications and information systems.
  • Publishing, particularly database marketers.
  • Insurance, especially senior-level marketers with direct-mail experience.
  • Pharmaceuticals and health care, especially outpatient clinics and home care.
  • Engineering, especially manufacturing and software.
  • Banking, particularly for credit card marketers, relationship managers and those with international experience.
  • Waste management.
“In this changing marketplace, increasingly we all have to be out there selling ourselves.”

No matter what industry you’re in, improvements in microprocessors make it inevitable that technology will change your field. Every job and industry - whether it is publishing, entertainment, manufacturing, financial services, or farming - is being affected by technology and by globalization. Today, any job is merely a temporary post. No job is permanent - and each job should get you closer to the reality of your forty-year vision.

“If you don’t decide where you want to go, you may wind up drifting from one organization to another whenever you’re dissatisfied, with pretty much the same job each time.”

Workers have become more transient, so retraining has grown increasingly important. People assume that retraining means teaching unskilled workers to use computers. In fact, everyone - even executives - needs constant retraining. New industries must hire workers from outside that industry, so by definition finding a job in a new field requires retraining.

Career Coaches

Few workers take advantage of career counseling, but everyone should. Just as you visit a doctor or dentist regularly, you should find a career coach or counselor who can offer check-ups on your career progress. A career coach can repair your current job problems, plan your career path, prepare your resume, plan your personal marketing effort, prepare you for a job interview, negotiate a salary or, if need be, negotiate a severance package. With an ever-shifting job base, workers must constantly market themselves. Career coaches help in this respect. Once they get to know you, coaches can warn you against making bad career decisions. But coaches aren’t just for emergencies; talk to your coach often.

Careers Grow Longer

Life spans grew more in the 20th century than at any time in the past. As a result, careers are lasting longer, and people are productive and creative well into their 60s and 70s. Conventional wisdom says workers are most creative and energetic between the ages of 30 and 45. But as people live longer, they’re able to enjoy multiple career peaks. For instance, Dr. Linus Pauling made a discovery while in his early 30s that earned him a Nobel Prize. In his 50s, he left science and toured the world to speak about world peace, earning a second Nobel Prize. Then he returned to science and conducted groundbreaking research on nutrition and vitamins. Many people reach peaks of achievement after 65. Unfortunately, corporate culture espouses early retirement and layoffs for managers in their 40s and 50s. Because of this sort of age prejudice, many productive older people must depend on their own skills and expertise, rather than on a corporate employer. These workers often start their own businesses or, depending on their credentials, work independently as consultants, doctors, lawyers and writers.

About the Author

Kate Wendleton founded The Five O’clock Club in 1978 to help job hunters and career changers. Wendleton is a syndicated columnist and an expert on job searches and career development. She holds an M.B.A. and was chief financial officer for two small companies.


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Targeting the Job You Want

Book Targeting the Job You Want

Career Press,


 



19 February 2025

Investment Intelligence From Insider Trading

Recommendation

Are you ready to learn from the somewhat mythical, sometimes notorious and often misunderstood inside traders? H. Nejat Seyhun has compressed a gargantuan amount of information - 21 year’s worth of reported insider trades, more than one million transactions - into a manual that debunks and reconfigures the wild world of insider trading. Since inside traders are bound by strict laws, their prowess comes from proximity to the action. As a farmer can predict the next big storm by watching his cattle, sophisticated traders can predict the next market windfall by watching the insiders. This isn’t a late-night page-turner; after all, Seyhun is a noted academic expert. Yet flashier verbal energy might have sacrificed the book’s most valuable quality: precision. This book (the opposite of the Investing for Illiterates-type) takes its readers and itself seriously - If you are serious about your portfolio, BooksInShort recommends that you put yourself through Seyhun’s course. Dedicated investors, policy makers and scholars need this on their reference shelves.

Take-Aways

  • Don’t believe the hype about insider trading - It can be profitable and legal.
  • Most inside traders obey a strict set of guidelines.
  • The insider’s advantage is an intimate knowledge of his or her business.
  • Familiar investment styles bet on the past; insider trading bets on the future.
  • If you decide to follow the insiders, be prepared for an avalanche - of information.
  • You can’t imitate the insiders move by move.
  • However, a strategy based on insider-trading information can be lucrative.
  • Insiders who are legitimate are interested in long-term gains, not quick fixes.
  • When dealing with insider trading information, don’t stop dealing in common sense.
  • Watching inside traders produces information - What you do with it is up to you.

Summary

Eliminate Your Misconceptions

Chains of negative connotation bind the term "insider trader." People who misunderstand the term - the people who buy into the negative connotation - are missing out on a tremendous investment opportunity.

What springs to mind when you read the words "insider trading?" If you’re like most people, you immediately think "insider trading is illegal." Don’t be like most people. Be precise. Insider trading is sometimes, but not always, illegal. Insiders trade legally and profitably all the time. As long as they don’t use material, nonpublic information they’re in the clear. Most large firms are exceedingly clear on what, when and how their members can trade. Now, eliminate another misconception. The common assumption is that insider traders don’t report their successful investments, because these investments are illegal. People reason, therefore, that insiders only release their throwaway investments; in other words, they only release the investments that didn’t earn any money. Wrong. The insiders’ reported legal transactions contain valuable information.

Why You Should Pay Attention

Insiders cannot move a single transaction without first consulting their compliance officers; insiders can only trade during a specific and rigidly determined timeframe. The list of regulations could go on and on. The point is simple, and knowing it sets up the key question you need to answer before using insider-trading information: If insiders are forced to comply with such a strict set of guidelines, how is their investment acuity any different from yours?

“Understanding the motivation for a particular series of insider trading is no simple task.”

To begin with, insiders can trade on any piece of information that is equally accessible to the public. As long as they don’t know anything that would have a direct impact on their firms’ stock prices, they are free to enter into transactions relating to their firms. Their advantage doesn’t come from any special, secret information. It comes from their everyday experience.

“Current insider-trading laws treat violations of insider trading almost as seriously as most violent crimes resulting in death or physical injury.”

Henry David Thoreau said that he wrote about himself because he knew himself better than he knew anyone else. In the same way, an insider trades on his own firm because he knows its business better than he knows any other firm’s business. If you were working in the typewriter business when the prices of computers started dropping, you would notice that fewer people were buying your product. You would witness the drop in demand. This is public information and you would be foolish not to act on it. Insiders don’t benefit from covert information; they benefit from their expertise in a given industry. And, if you watch their moves closely, you, too, can benefit from the expertise of insiders.

Beyond Growth and Value

The two most familiar investment styles are the value-based approach and the growth-based approach. Investors using the value-based approach try to locate undervalued firms whose stock returns will beat the average. The growth-based approach is more interested in firms that investors support today than in firms that investors might support tomorrow. People who use a growth-based approach hope to get a piece of the firm’s growth momentum.

“Aggregate insider-trading activity follows rather slow cycles that are similar to business cycles.”

These approaches are based on theories concerned with book-to-market ratios (B/M) or price-earnings ratios (P/E). Both depend on current stock prices and, therefore, are indicative of historical changes and risk premiums. In contrast, insider trading is concerned with firm value and the future. Its main concern is to identify profit opportunities. While the value-based and the growth-based approaches are determined by statistical inquiries, insider trading is based on real people investing their own money. If they lose, they lose immediately.

Are There Insider-Trading Patterns?

Yes. And the most basic pattern of insider trading is that there’s a lot of it. Remarkably, too, the amount of insider trading has not decreased during the past few decades in spite of the ever-burgeoning sanctions against it. Thus, it’s probably wise to start monitoring this phenomenon. If the insiders have persisted, in all probability, they’re making money.

“Despite the significant increases in insider-trading sanctions during the 1980’s, there was no decline in the levels of insider trading.”

More specific patterns include:

  1. In large firms, insiders sell more than they buy.
  2. In smaller firms, insiders buy more than they sell.
  3. Insiders buy least during the summer months and most during the turn of the year.
  4. If insiders have bought or sold in a firm in the past, they are likely to continue to buy or sell in that firm in the future.
  5. The evidence shows that insiders are not manipulating stock prices.
  6. Illegal insider trading is becoming less common as penalties become more severe.

Get a Strategy

Insider-trading signals can certainly give your portfolio a boost. In many cases, these signals are the best predictors of future markets. In theory, you might expect to be able to imitate the moves of insiders directly. You might expect to turn a profit just by selling when they sell and buying when they buy. One glaring problem exists with this theory: When you seek these signals and try to read them, you will find yourself in the midst of an information avalanche.

“There is a strong positive correlation between past insider trading and future insider trading.”

Insider transactions have been (and often still are) printed in The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, Value Line Investment Survey and several online services. The fact that these venues all take notice of insider information reinforces the claim that it is important; but this won’t make your life any easier when you attempt to use insider information. In the last few years, insiders have been extremely active. You can’t keep up with them. Direct imitation is time-consuming, expensive and, clearly, out of the question.

“It is almost impossible to understand and interpret insider-trading patterns without a good understanding of insider-trading regulations.”

Direct imitation is also a bad idea because you have no way of knowing exactly why an insider sells or buys stocks. He could be buying stock because he just got a raise and wants to gamble a little. He could be selling his stock because he has to liquidate to pay for a messy divorce.

Imitation is also a bad idea because the insiders can be very crafty. If they know many investors are interpreting every move as a good move, they can begin to manipulate the market. For example, their expertise might give them a hint that a certain stock soon will fall. If they know people are watching them, these investors might buy a few shares of it, so it becomes more valuable. Then, they can turn around and sell their new shares along with any old shares they might possess - at a huge profit at your (and other outsiders’) expense. You can use inside traders’ information to improve your portfolio, but you can’t imitate their moves. You need a strategy, a way to read the information that works to your benefit.

Building a Framework

Over time, you’ll have to develop your own strategy. No exact formula exists. But you can begin to erect a scaffolding right now. The following guidelines will assist you.

  • Remember that the law creates four distinct classes of inside traders: top executives, officers, directors and large shareholders. On the average, the information hierarchy flows from the top down. Executives are the most informed, shareholders are the least, and officers and directors fall somewhere in the middle. This confirms the notion that the insiders’ advantage doesn’t come from something that they are keeping from the public; it comes from their experience and their dealings with the public.
  • Based on the first guideline, you can determine that large shareholders are slightly ’out of the loop’ when it comes to insider trading. Because they’re not on the front line, they’re not trading with the same level of probability as high-level executives. When you’re looking at large trades, therefore, don’t pay attention to those made by large shareholders. When the top executives, officers and directors start making large trades, some alarms should start going off in your investment brain.
  • Don’t pay as much attention to insiders’ sales as to their purchases.
  • Percentage-wise, insiders who trade in small firms make more money than insiders who trade in large firms.
  • Likewise, when you’re dealing with small firms, you don’t have to determine between the class of insiders. They all make money at relatively the same rate - but you still want to watch purchases more closely than you watch sales.

Does Insider Trading Predict Stock Returns?

Yes. Stock prices rise when insiders purchase them. At the same time, when insiders start selling, you may want to think about your holdings. Insider selling could be a signal that bad times are ahead. However, insiders do much better than the overall market in any given year. But don’t get carried away. Most insider trade profit is small. Don’t invest a large sum of money the first time you notice a small profit. Since the insiders you care about are the ones who are obeying the laws inside and outside of their firms, you can presume that insiders are interested in long-term gains rather than quick fixes. Since they can’t legally manipulate their firms’ stock value, they have to try to predict where their firms are headed. This is a slow process. If you’re going to imitate the insiders, you don’t have to rush.

The Way of the Outsider

If you want to be an outsider in an insiders’ game - if you want to mimic the moves of inside traders - consider these points:

  • There are always going to be delays in the reporting of insider-trading information. Chances are that you’ll have to wait a month or two (at least) to gain access to insiders’ trades. This delay occurs across the whole spectrum of insider trades. You won’t necessarily hear about the small trades before you hear about the big trades, and vice-versa. At the same time, you won’t necessarily hear about the trades of high-level investors before you hear about the trades of large shareholders. The results come in sporadically and in no specific order.
  • You also need to be aware of transaction costs. If you’re going to mimic the insiders you have to be ready for price adjustments - which means broker’s fees. It usually takes up to three months of holding your shares to recoup your transaction costs.
  • The basic risk factor is always there. Anytime you base your investment strategy on an insider, you risk losing over half of your funds. If you want to cut this risk, you have to be willing to mimic approximately 50 insider transactions.
“The federal insider-trading regulations were passed in 1934 in response to the crash of 1929 with the aim of protecting small investors.”

Following in the insiders’ footsteps can be tricky at times, but if you can pull it off you will see a generous return on your expenditures. Of course, never break the rule of common sense. Anytime you’re dealing with stock futures, you cannot depend on the past performance of those stocks. Also, just as you do when you download driving directions off the Internet, always do a reality check and make sure the road you want to travel down still exists. You never know when the federal government is going to change the game with a new set of laws. Take insider trading for what its worth: information. Rather than basing your whole investment strategy on the moves of insiders, use insider information to buoy your current strategies. Diversity is still the best policy when it comes to investing. Insider-trading information is a tool and not a panacea.

About the Author

H. Nejat Seyhun holds the Jerome B. and Eilene M. York professorship at the University of Michigan Business School, where he is chairman of the finance department. He is one of the leading academic experts on insider trading.


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Investment Intelligence From Insider Trading

Book Investment Intelligence From Insider Trading

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